VW to surpass GM in China sales this year

General Motors will cede its position as the world best-selling foreign automaker in China to Volkswagen this year, marking the first time in nine years that the Detroit automaker hasn’t topped the sale charts in world’s largest auto market.

GM held a slight lead over VW at the halfway point of this year, delivering 1.57 million vehicles compared to the German automaker’s 1.54 million units, but VW pulled ahead by 70,000 units by the end of November. VW sold its 3 millionth vehicle in China on December 5, with GM hitting the same sales mark a week later.

“China is the big battleground,” Klaus Paur, Shanghai-based global head of automotive at market researcher Ipsos, told Bloomberg. “At the same time, there’s a risk of an over-dependence on the Chinese market. As long as this is all working well, it’s wonderful but if something gets in the way, then the exposure to risk is even bigger.”

That risk includes huge investments from both automakers. GM will spend $11 billion to improve its China operations over the next three years while VW has vowed to invest $12.8 billion in the world’s largest auto market by 2015.

China is on pace this year to become the first country ever with more than 20 million vehicle sales. Some within the industry expect sales in China to climb as high as 32 million by the year 2020.